With a US review hanging over its head, the UK review’s lead spoke to DSEI Gateway about why the programme is so important, and where it’s heading.

When AUKUS first launched in September 2021, the trilateral partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US marked a step-change in international relations between the three countries.

The programme has arguably affected Australia most significantly, allowing the country to build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time under Pillar I of the programme, while for the UK and the US it provides a key geopolitical foothold in the Indo-pacific. For each nation it also offers access to the advanced capabilities and emerging technologies shared under Pillar II of the programme.

Four years on, though, the AUKUS programme faces scrutiny on all fronts, perhaps most notably from the US.

Both the UK and Australia have conducted reviews into the programme, but it is the US review that has caused the most concern, given the latter’s cautious and more transactional stance on international cooperation and its critical role in the programme.

Despite reports from Nikkei Asia that US officials had confirmed AUKUS’ safety, comments made by Australia’s Defense Minister Richard Marles and a US Department of War official spokesperson in reporting from Bloomberg and The Guardian, respectively, suggest the US review is still underway.

To discuss what these reviews mean for the programme and what the future may hold, as well as the ongoing importance of AUKUS, DSEI Gateway sat down with Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK’s special representative to AUKUS and the lead on the UK’s review.

Why AUKUS is still so important

Having previously held the role of National Security Adviser to the UK Government before leading the UK’s review into AUKUS and taking up the role of special representative to AUKUS, there are few in the UK better placed to outline the programme’s importance than Lovegrove.  

Describing it as the “most important defence collaboration that has been announced anywhere in the world” in the last 65 years, Lovegrove explained why it is a crucial partnership for all those involved.

“It is a really epoch-making agreement for certainly the UK and America, but especially for Australia which … is now investing in building nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines, and that is a very, very serious thing to do”, Lovegrove said.

There are just six countries in the world who possess nuclear submarines – China, France, India, Russia, the UK, and the US – with Australia soon to be the seventh member of this exclusive club thanks to AUKUS.

“That's just the submarines”, Lovegrove added, noting too the importance of the advanced capabilities and technologies that form the basis of Pillar II.

Under this aspect of the programme, Australia, the UK, and the US co-develop advanced technologies including cyber, AI, quantum, and undersea systems, as well as hypersonic and counter-hypersonic missile technologies.

Pillar II faces some challenges, though, with analysis from think tank Australian Strategic Policy Institute suggesting funding for Pillar II projects is buried in existing budgets, and that this element of AUKUS feels more like a policy conversation than a capability programme.

Sir Stephen Lovegrove, the UK's AUKUS review lead, at the Pentagon in Washington DC, US. (UK MoD © Crown Copyright 2021)

What do the reviews mean for AUKUS?

While all AUKUS members have placed the programme under national scrutiny, it is only the US review which critics fear could throw the partnership off course. The UK review, by contrast, has been carried out under an impression of support for the programme, Lovegrove said.

“When the prime minister asked me to do the review, it was against the background of him being a very firm supporter of AUKUS. When I briefed him – when he was leader of the opposition – he was completely supportive of it from the get-go. I mean, there was no doubt about that”, Lovegrove said.

“The review that I did for him was designed to strengthen AUKUS and to make it as effective as it possibly could be and make suggestions as to where it could be reinforced”, he added.

Detailing these recommendations, Lovegrove said his review looked at both pillars as well as the governance and strategic communications of the programme, including the need to “drive through” on submarine build and maintenance, prioritise a number of advanced technologies, and re-focus governance of the programme across departments.

Lovegrove said his recommendations had all been accepted by the prime minister and are being actioned, noting too that the Australian review, led by Dennis Richardson, is “pretty much finished”. The official results of the US review are not yet known, however, despite reports that the programme may be safe.

The US review of AUKUS was launched amid calls from US President Donald Trump and his administration that its allies should be spending more on its own defence, while a defence official has said that the US AUKUS review will ensure “allies step up fully to do their part for collective defence", the BBC reported.  

“The department is reviewing AUKUS as part of ensuring that this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America first’ agenda,” a Pentagon official said when the US review was announced.

According to Lovegrove, though, “it’s completely natural” to conduct a review given the programmes scope, size, and cost. Australia, for example, is expected to spend up to AUD368 billion over the next 30 years developing its own fleet.

“These are very expensive bits of kit which require very, very substantial investments, not only in the platforms themselves, but the infrastructure which is there to support and build them … In many ways, it'd be irresponsible not to do a review just to check that everybody is aligned and we're still going forward”, Lovegrove said.

“I think the strategic rationale for AUKUS is self-evidently very, very strong to my mind. I think that's what our review reinforced. That's what the Australian review reinforced. I would be very surprised indeed if the American review didn't find that to be the case.”

He is ultimately confident that AUKUS will “go from strength to strength” as a result of these reviews.

What does the future hold?

The future of the programme looks positive, to Lovegrove’s mind, given “there are no bonds tighter than those which are formed by nuclear collaboration”.

Specifically, the next stage of the programme will involve advance deployment of ‘Submarine Rotational Force West’ in Perth, which is a rotational presence of UK and US submarines in Australia.

Announcements on Pillar II projects will also likely be made before long, Lovegrove said, and its “not impossible to see other countries maybe joining specific areas”.

Japan and South Korea have allegedly expressed an interest in joining Pillar II.

Ultimately, though, given the length with which this programme will need to continue, the focus must be on executing the ongoing task of building submarines, Lovegrove said.

“We're talking basically about a programme that is effectively never going to finish”, Lovegrove said.

“The focus needs to be on relentless execution of the tasks ahead of us, which are about building up the infrastructure which allows us to build the new the new submarines, and maintain the submarines as effectively as we can – that's what I'd like to see, is a relentless focus on execution”, he added.