The long awaited Integrated Review Refresh was published on 13 March 2023, two days before the UK’s budget was revealed by the Chancellor.

The report addressed two of the criticisms of the original, first published in 2021. First, the original report was criticised for its lack of an assessment of Europe in the context of geo-politics and defence. This has been addressed in the Refresh, which states that "The most pressing national security and foreign policy priority in the short-to-medium term is to address the threat posed by Russia to European security."

The report also addressed the criticism that the "tilt to the Indo-Pacific" was merely just words with no detail or action. The review counters this by highlighting the UK's strengthened position in the region through trade deals and defence partnerships. For example, in December 2022 Japan signed up to an Anglo-Italian initiative to build a next-generation aircraft, a project known as the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). This partnership was strengthened at DSEI Japan in March 2023. Relations with Australia are also continuing to develop with Britain, which are now building the former's nuclear submarine as part of the AUKUS pact, a three-way deal announced by America, Australia and Britain. On top of that, Britain is now a member of the CPTPP, an Asian trade deal.

On defence spending specifically, the Ministry of Defence will receive an extra £6bn over the next five years in addition to the £5bn that had previously been announced by Rishi Sunak. This money is earmarked for nuclear weapons, submarines and the replenishment of munition stockpiles, which have been greatly reduced due to the war in Ukraine. UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, and his military chiefs at the time were calling for a commitment to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence.

Procurement methodology across UK defence may need to become increasingly nimbler if the most is to be gained from this uplift. Moreover, with inflation still dangerously high and dollar exchange rates low by historic levels, how much more real money will actually be available depends on macroeconomic conditions.

There are inevitable lessons to be learned from the conflict in Ukraine; the situation is still volatile and unpredictable. The Ukrainian war is an example of state-on-state aggression, with large scale urban battlegrounds, reminiscent of the fighting in the Second World War. However, the current and future operating environment will have multi-varied challenges below the threshold of traditional warfare; keeping competition at a pre-threshold level, or in the ‘grey zone’ may well become the new normal.

We are entering a new paradigm where challenges will not only be presented in the real world, but also in the virtual and cognitive worlds. The UK, but also allies across the globe, need to be prepared for these threats. Difficult times ahead.