Dr Keith Dear will argue that true digital transformation in defence is, at its heart, a transformation in how decisions are made. All decisions are, fundamentally, predictions: if I do this, I expect that to happen. Today’s AI already predicts outcomes 50% better than humans, and it is the worst it will ever be. As capability accelerates, it is ushering in the most profound shift in the character of warfare we have ever seen.

The Digital Targeting Web, as conceived in the Strategic Defence Review, was never just a tech programme. It was meant to be a theory of winning. To realise that ambition, it must be grounded in a new concept: decision-centric warfare - where decision quality is the decisive edge. To make it anything less is to risk falling behind. And in warfare, to fall behind is eventually to lose.